VEN vs BOL
Venezia (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
VEN win 29.7% fair 3.37
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
BOL win 44.6% fair 2.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.8% / 25.4% / 47.7%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.09
—
1.54
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 BOL | 12.1% | |
| VEN 0-1 BOL | 11.1% | |
| VEN 1-2 BOL | 9.3% | |
| VEN 0-2 BOL | 8.6% | |
| VEN 1-0 BOL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).