VEN vs BOL
Venezia (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 27.7% fair 3.61
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
BOL win 47.0% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.1% / 25.0% / 49.9%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.06
—
1.60
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 BOL | 11.9% | |
| VEN 0-1 BOL | 11.2% | |
| VEN 1-2 BOL | 9.5% | |
| VEN 0-2 BOL | 9.0% | |
| VEN 1-0 BOL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).