VEN vs CAG
Venezia (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 27.0% fair 3.71
CAG win 39.2% fair 2.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.3% / 27.0% / 40.7%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.16
—
1.33
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 CAG | 12.8% | |
| VEN 0-1 CAG | 11.1% | |
| VEN 1-0 CAG | 9.6% | |
| VEN 1-2 CAG | 8.5% | |
| VEN 0-0 CAG | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).