VEN vs COM
Venezia (home) vs Como · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 19.7% fair 5.08
Draw 21.6% fair 4.62
COM win 58.7% fair 1.70
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 15.4% / 20.6% / 64.0%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.87
—
2.01
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-2 COM | 11.3% | |
| VEN 0-1 COM | 11.3% | |
| VEN 1-2 COM | 9.9% | |
| VEN 1-1 COM | 9.8% | |
| VEN 0-3 COM | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).