VEN vs FIO
Venezia (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
VEN win 36.9% fair 2.71
Draw 26.5% fair 3.77
FIO win 36.6% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.6% / 26.4% / 38.0%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.28
—
1.33
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 FIO | 12.5% | |
| VEN 0-1 FIO | 9.8% | |
| VEN 1-0 FIO | 9.4% | |
| VEN 1-2 FIO | 8.3% | |
| VEN 2-1 FIO | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).