VEN vs FRO
Venezia (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 67% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 36.6% fair 2.73
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
FRO win 37.8% fair 2.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.3% / 25.3% / 39.4%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.35
—
1.44
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 FRO | 11.9% | |
| VEN 0-1 FRO | 8.8% | |
| VEN 1-2 FRO | 8.6% | |
| VEN 1-0 FRO | 8.3% | |
| VEN 2-1 FRO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).