VEN vs GEN
Venezia (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 35.7% fair 2.80
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
GEN win 37.7% fair 2.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.6% / 26.5% / 38.9%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.24
—
1.33
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 GEN | 12.6% | |
| VEN 0-1 GEN | 10.2% | |
| VEN 1-0 GEN | 9.5% | |
| VEN 1-2 GEN | 8.4% | |
| VEN 2-1 GEN | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).