VEN vs INT
Venezia (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 14.1% fair 7.09
Draw 16.1% fair 6.21
INT win 69.8% fair 1.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 9.7% / 14.4% / 75.9%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.90
—
2.73
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.3% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.7% | fair 3.37 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-2 INT | 9.9% | |
| VEN 0-3 INT | 9.0% | |
| VEN 1-2 INT | 8.9% | |
| VEN 1-3 INT | 8.1% | |
| VEN 0-1 INT | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).