VEN vs INT
Venezia (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
VEN win 17.1% fair 5.86
Draw 18.8% fair 5.32
INT win 64.1% fair 1.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 12.0% / 17.2% / 70.8%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.88
—
2.38
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-2 INT | 10.9% | |
| VEN 1-2 INT | 9.6% | |
| VEN 0-1 INT | 9.1% | |
| VEN 0-3 INT | 8.7% | |
| VEN 1-1 INT | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).