VEN vs JUV
Venezia (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 22.2% fair 4.50
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
JUV win 54.5% fair 1.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.8% / 22.7% / 58.5%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.93
—
1.83
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-1 JUV | 11.6% | |
| VEN 1-1 JUV | 10.8% | |
| VEN 0-2 JUV | 10.6% | |
| VEN 1-2 JUV | 9.9% | |
| VEN 0-3 JUV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).