VEN vs LAZ
Venezia (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
VEN win 30.3% fair 3.30
Draw 26.8% fair 3.73
LAZ win 42.9% fair 2.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.5% / 26.8% / 45.8%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.03
—
1.41
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 LAZ | 12.7% | |
| VEN 0-1 LAZ | 12.3% | |
| VEN 1-0 LAZ | 9.0% | |
| VEN 1-2 LAZ | 8.9% | |
| VEN 0-0 LAZ | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).