VEN vs LEC
Venezia (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 65% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 0-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VEN win 40.1% fair 2.49
Draw 27.7% fair 3.62
LEC win 32.2% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.6% / 27.8% / 32.6%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.25
—
1.11
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 LEC | 13.1% | |
| VEN 1-0 LEC | 11.8% | |
| VEN 0-1 LEC | 10.5% | |
| VEN 0-0 LEC | 9.4% | |
| VEN 2-1 LEC | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).