VEN vs LEC
Venezia (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
VEN win 37.8% fair 2.65
Draw 27.9% fair 3.59
LEC win 34.4% fair 2.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.7% / 28.1% / 35.2%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.18
—
1.15
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 LEC | 13.2% | |
| VEN 1-0 LEC | 11.4% | |
| VEN 0-1 LEC | 11.1% | |
| VEN 0-0 LEC | 9.6% | |
| VEN 2-1 LEC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).