VEN vs MIL
Venezia (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 20.5% fair 4.89
Draw 22.1% fair 4.51
MIL win 57.4% fair 1.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 16.8% / 21.3% / 61.9%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.91
—
1.96
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-1 MIL | 11.2% | |
| VEN 0-2 MIL | 10.9% | |
| VEN 1-1 MIL | 10.1% | |
| VEN 1-2 MIL | 9.9% | |
| VEN 0-3 MIL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).