VEN vs MON
Venezia (home) vs Monza · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
MON win 36.4% fair 2.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.7% / 24.6% / 37.6%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.47
—
1.46
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 MON | 11.5% | |
| VEN 2-1 MON | 8.4% | |
| VEN 1-2 MON | 8.4% | |
| VEN 1-0 MON | 7.8% | |
| VEN 0-1 MON | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).