VEN vs MON
Venezia (home) vs Monza · model confidence 57%
Match Outcome
VEN win 43.0% fair 2.33
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
MON win 30.9% fair 3.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.3% / 25.9% / 30.8%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.45
—
1.18
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 MON | 12.3% | |
| VEN 1-0 MON | 10.4% | |
| VEN 2-1 MON | 8.9% | |
| VEN 0-1 MON | 8.5% | |
| VEN 2-0 MON | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).