VEN vs NAP
Venezia (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
VEN win 22.5% fair 4.45
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
NAP win 54.2% fair 1.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.1% / 22.5% / 59.4%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.91
—
1.84
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-1 NAP | 11.8% | |
| VEN 0-2 NAP | 10.9% | |
| VEN 1-1 NAP | 10.7% | |
| VEN 1-2 NAP | 9.8% | |
| VEN 0-3 NAP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).