VEN vs PAR
Venezia (home) vs Parma · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 28.2% fair 3.54
PAR win 34.3% fair 2.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.7% / 28.5% / 34.9%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.16
—
1.12
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 PAR | 13.3% | |
| VEN 1-0 PAR | 11.8% | |
| VEN 0-1 PAR | 11.4% | |
| VEN 0-0 PAR | 10.2% | |
| VEN 2-1 PAR | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).