VEN vs ROM
Venezia (home) vs Roma · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 17.2% fair 5.83
Draw 20.0% fair 5.01
ROM win 62.9% fair 1.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 13.1% / 18.8% / 68.1%.
Expected Goals
VEN
0.84
—
2.18
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 0-2 ROM | 11.6% | |
| VEN 0-1 ROM | 10.7% | |
| VEN 1-2 ROM | 9.7% | |
| VEN 1-1 ROM | 8.9% | |
| VEN 0-3 ROM | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).