VEN vs SAS
Venezia (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
VEN win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
SAS win 41.0% fair 2.44
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.9% / 25.7% / 43.5%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.20
—
1.48
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 SAS | 12.2% | |
| VEN 0-1 SAS | 10.1% | |
| VEN 1-2 SAS | 9.0% | |
| VEN 1-0 SAS | 8.3% | |
| VEN 0-2 SAS | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).