VEN vs SAS
Venezia (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 32.1% fair 3.12
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
SAS win 43.2% fair 2.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.2% / 24.4% / 45.4%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.28
—
1.62
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 SAS | 11.4% | |
| VEN 1-2 SAS | 9.2% | |
| VEN 0-1 SAS | 8.9% | |
| VEN 2-1 SAS | 7.3% | |
| VEN 0-2 SAS | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).