VEN vs TOR
Venezia (home) vs Torino · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
TOR win 42.2% fair 2.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.2% / 24.5% / 44.3%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.30
—
1.59
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 TOR | 11.5% | |
| VEN 1-2 TOR | 9.1% | |
| VEN 0-1 TOR | 8.8% | |
| VEN 2-1 TOR | 7.5% | |
| VEN 1-0 TOR | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).