VEN vs UDI
Venezia (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 34.2% fair 2.92
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
UDI win 40.4% fair 2.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.8% / 25.1% / 42.1%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.30
—
1.51
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 UDI | 11.8% | |
| VEN 0-1 UDI | 9.1% | |
| VEN 1-2 UDI | 8.9% | |
| VEN 1-0 UDI | 7.9% | |
| VEN 2-1 UDI | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).