VEN vs UDI
Venezia (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
VEN win 31.6% fair 3.17
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
UDI win 42.3% fair 2.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.0% / 25.9% / 45.1%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.13
—
1.47
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 UDI | 12.3% | |
| VEN 0-1 UDI | 10.9% | |
| VEN 1-2 UDI | 9.1% | |
| VEN 1-0 UDI | 8.4% | |
| VEN 0-2 UDI | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).