Matchday 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-27 20:00 | Paris vs Galatasaray | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | BAY vs BET | 73.9% | 13.3% | 12.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-27 20:00 | Liverpool vs Lens | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Man City vs Sporting CP | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Arsenal vs Sabah | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | FCB vs COM | 70.9% | 13.8% | 15.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-27 20:00 | Atleti vs Fenerbahçe | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | B. Dortmund vs AEK Athens | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Roma vs Lille | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Club Brugge vs Bodø/Glimt | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | PSV vs Stuttgart | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Feyenoord vs Leipzig | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Napoli vs Viking | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Villarreal vs Man Utd | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Shakhtar vs Real Madrid | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | S. Bratislava vs Inter | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-27 20:00 | LASK vs Porto | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.