Matchday 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-19 17:45 | Bodø/Glimt vs Atleti | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-19 17:45 | Galatasaray vs Feyenoord | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-19 20:00 | Real Madrid vs LASK | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-19 20:00 | INT vs LIV | 35.5% | 20.3% | 44.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-19 20:00 | AVL vs BVB | 46.3% | 22.7% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-19 20:00 | Porto vs Slavia Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-19 20:00 | Lille vs S. Bratislava | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-19 20:00 | Stuttgart vs Club Brugge | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-19 20:00 | AEK Athens vs Roma | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-20 17:45 | Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-20 17:45 | Sabah vs Napoli | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-20 20:00 | Sporting CP vs Barcelona | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-20 20:00 | MUN vs BAY | 27.3% | 19.0% | 53.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-20 20:00 | BET vs ARS | 16.6% | 17.9% | 65.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-20 20:00 | Leipzig vs Shakhtar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-20 20:00 | COM vs PSG | 35.1% | 21.2% | 43.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-20 20:00 | Lens vs Man City | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-20 20:00 | Viking vs PSV | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.