Matchday 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-08 17:45 | Villarreal vs Sabah | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-08 17:45 | Viking vs Feyenoord | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-08 20:00 | Bayern München vs Slavia Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-08 20:00 | FCB vs MCI | 45.8% | 18.6% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-08 20:00 | Roma vs Sporting CP | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-08 20:00 | AVL vs PSG | 41.5% | 21.6% | 36.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-08 20:00 | Man Utd vs Leipzig | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-08 20:00 | Napoli vs Club Brugge | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-08 20:00 | AEK Athens vs Galatasaray | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-09 17:45 | BET vs COM | 41.3% | 21.3% | 37.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-09 17:45 | S. Bratislava vs Shakhtar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-09 20:00 | Liverpool vs Porto | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-09 20:00 | ARS vs RMA | 62.9% | 19.0% | 18.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-09 20:00 | BVB vs INT | 42.3% | 21.0% | 36.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-09 20:00 | PSV vs Atleti | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-09 20:00 | Stuttgart vs Lille | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-09 20:00 | LASK vs Fenerbahçe | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 12-09 20:00 | Lens vs Bodø/Glimt | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.