EDGERATING
Methodology

Matchday 5

Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).

← MD 4
MD 6 →
Date (UTC)Match HomeDrawAway ResultModel pick
11-24 17:45 Bodø/Glimt vs LASK Outside big-five rating pool
11-24 17:45 Galatasaray vs Aston Villa Outside big-five rating pool
11-24 20:00 Real Madrid vs PSV Outside big-five rating pool
11-24 20:00 MCI vs NAP 73.6% 13.7% 12.8% — HOME analysis →
11-24 20:00 ARS vs BVB 66.0% 19.2% 14.8% — HOME analysis →
11-24 20:00 Feyenoord vs Porto Outside big-five rating pool
11-24 20:00 Leipzig vs Lens Outside big-five rating pool
11-24 20:00 S. Bratislava vs Real Betis Outside big-five rating pool
11-24 20:00 Como vs AEK Athens Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 17:45 Slavia Praha vs Villarreal Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 17:45 Sabah vs Barcelona Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 20:00 PSG vs ROM 54.0% 19.8% 26.2% — HOME analysis →
11-25 20:00 Inter vs Stuttgart Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 20:00 Atleti vs Viking Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 20:00 Sporting CP vs Man Utd Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 20:00 Club Brugge vs Liverpool Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 20:00 Lille vs Bayern München Outside big-five rating pool
11-25 20:00 Shakhtar vs Fenerbahçe Outside big-five rating pool

Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.