EDGERATING
Methodology

Matchday 4

Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).

← MD 3
MD 5 →
Date (UTC)Match HomeDrawAway ResultModel pick
11-03 17:45 Shakhtar vs Sporting CP Outside big-five rating pool
11-03 17:45 Galatasaray vs Stuttgart Outside big-five rating pool
11-03 20:00 FCB vs AVL 63.9% 16.1% 19.9% — HOME analysis →
11-03 20:00 ATM vs BAY 28.3% 19.5% 52.1% — AWAY analysis →
11-03 20:00 MUN vs ROM 43.1% 21.3% 35.6% — HOME analysis →
11-03 20:00 Feyenoord vs Inter Outside big-five rating pool
11-03 20:00 Bodø/Glimt vs Lille Outside big-five rating pool
11-03 20:00 Villarreal vs Paris Outside big-five rating pool
11-03 20:00 LASK vs S. Bratislava Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 17:45 Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 17:45 AEK Athens vs Real Madrid Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 20:00 BVB vs BET 55.1% 20.8% 24.0% — HOME analysis →
11-04 20:00 Porto vs Napoli Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 20:00 PSV vs Club Brugge Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 20:00 Leipzig vs Man City Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 20:00 Slavia Praha vs Arsenal Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 20:00 Lens vs Como Outside big-five rating pool
11-04 20:00 Viking vs Sabah Outside big-five rating pool

Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.