Matchday 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 16:45 | Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 16:45 | Sabah vs B. Dortmund | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 19:00 | PSG vs FCB | 36.7% | 19.1% | 44.2% | 4-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-20 19:00 | Liverpool vs Villarreal | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 19:00 | Man City vs AEK Athens | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 19:00 | Roma vs S. Bratislava | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 19:00 | Porto vs PSV | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 19:00 | Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-20 19:00 | Stuttgart vs Atleti | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 16:45 | Lille vs Galatasaray | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 16:45 | COM vs MUN | 45.2% | 21.3% | 33.5% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-21 19:00 | BAY vs ARS | 35.4% | 22.5% | 42.1% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-21 19:00 | Real Madrid vs Leipzig | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 19:00 | Inter vs Shakhtar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 19:00 | Sporting CP vs LASK | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 19:00 | Aston Villa vs Viking | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 19:00 | Club Brugge vs Lens | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-21 19:00 | Real Betis vs Feyenoord | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.