Matchday 2
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 16:45 | Lens vs Sporting CP | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 16:45 | Sabah vs Slavia Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 19:00 | Inter vs Club Brugge | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 19:00 | Arsenal vs Lille | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 19:00 | ATM vs MUN | 47.5% | 21.4% | 31.1% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-13 19:00 | Leipzig vs PSV | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 19:00 | Villarreal vs Napoli | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 19:00 | Galatasaray vs Barcelona | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-13 19:00 | Viking vs Bayern München | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 16:45 | Feyenoord vs Como | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 16:45 | LASK vs Liverpool | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 19:00 | MCI vs PSG | 59.6% | 18.3% | 22.1% | 2-4 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-14 19:00 | ROM vs RMA | 38.0% | 20.8% | 41.2% | 3-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-14 19:00 | Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 19:00 | Real Betis vs Porto | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 19:00 | Bodø/Glimt vs B. Dortmund | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 19:00 | Shakhtar vs AEK Athens | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-14 19:00 | S. Bratislava vs Stuttgart | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.