Matchday 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 16:45 | Club Brugge vs Aston Villa | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-08 16:45 | AEK Athens vs LASK | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-08 19:00 | RMA vs INT | 51.6% | 18.6% | 29.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-08 19:00 | B. Dortmund vs Villarreal | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-08 19:00 | Porto vs Man City | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-08 19:00 | Lille vs Real Betis | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-09 16:45 | Barcelona vs Feyenoord | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-09 16:45 | Stuttgart vs Viking | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-09 19:00 | Paris vs S. Bratislava | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-09 19:00 | LIV vs ATM | 62.2% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-09 19:00 | Sporting CP vs Galatasaray | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-09 19:00 | NAP vs ARS | 17.5% | 18.5% | 64.0% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-10 16:45 | PSV vs Shakhtar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-10 16:45 | Fenerbahçe vs Roma | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-10 19:00 | Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-10 19:00 | Man Utd vs Sabah | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-10 19:00 | Slavia Praha vs Lens | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-10 19:00 | Como vs Leipzig | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.