Gameweek 34
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 13:30 | ELV vs SVW | 42.3% | 22.8% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | S04 vs B04 | 27.4% | 22.5% | 50.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | KOE vs SCP | 48.0% | 23.5% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | FCU vs BMG | 44.5% | 23.4% | 32.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | M05 vs VFB | 34.9% | 22.4% | 42.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | FCA vs HSV | 50.7% | 22.6% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | SCF vs BVB | 31.1% | 23.9% | 45.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | RBL vs TSG | 55.7% | 19.4% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 13:30 | BAY vs SGE | 82.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.