Gameweek 33
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 00:00 | SCP vs FCU | 42.6% | 24.6% | 32.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | SVW vs S04 | 45.7% | 24.6% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | HSV vs SCF | 32.7% | 23.9% | 43.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | BMG vs FCA | 37.7% | 22.3% | 39.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | SGE vs ELV | 51.7% | 20.5% | 27.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | B04 vs BAY | 24.2% | 18.8% | 57.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | TSG vs M05 | 55.0% | 20.3% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | VFB vs RBL | 38.8% | 21.6% | 39.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-14 00:00 | BVB vs KOE | 66.2% | 18.7% | 15.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.