Gameweek 32
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 00:00 | ELV vs TSG | 31.9% | 21.2% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | S04 vs SGE | 39.7% | 23.6% | 36.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | FCU vs SVW | 40.8% | 24.0% | 35.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | M05 vs BVB | 25.5% | 22.8% | 51.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | FCA vs VFB | 36.2% | 21.9% | 41.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | SCF vs KOE | 54.9% | 21.3% | 23.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | B04 vs HSV | 64.1% | 18.6% | 17.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | RBL vs SCP | 67.9% | 16.8% | 15.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 00:00 | BAY vs BMG | 84.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.