Gameweek 31
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 00:00 | SCP vs FCA | 36.7% | 23.4% | 39.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | SVW vs BAY | 13.4% | 14.3% | 72.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | KOE vs M05 | 41.6% | 23.4% | 35.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | HSV vs ELV | 44.6% | 23.6% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | BMG vs S04 | 42.8% | 24.6% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | SGE vs B04 | 31.1% | 20.2% | 48.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | TSG vs FCU | 60.6% | 19.4% | 20.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | VFB vs SCF | 48.9% | 21.7% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 00:00 | BVB vs RBL | 48.6% | 22.7% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.