Gameweek 30
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 00:00 | ELV vs SCP | 46.0% | 23.2% | 30.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | S04 vs HSV | 42.3% | 26.2% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | FCU vs VFB | 29.1% | 22.4% | 48.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | FCA vs BVB | 26.3% | 22.4% | 51.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | SGE vs BMG | 52.7% | 20.4% | 26.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | SCF vs M05 | 52.2% | 21.7% | 26.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | B04 vs SVW | 63.3% | 18.2% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | RBL vs KOE | 66.1% | 17.3% | 16.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 00:00 | BAY vs TSG | 75.5% | 13.0% | 11.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.