Gameweek 29
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-09 00:00 | SCP vs BAY | 13.3% | 14.0% | 72.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | SVW vs SGE | 43.1% | 21.8% | 35.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | KOE vs FCA | 40.9% | 22.8% | 36.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | HSV vs FCU | 44.2% | 24.9% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | BMG vs B04 | 25.7% | 20.1% | 54.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | M05 vs RBL | 28.8% | 21.1% | 50.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | TSG vs SCF | 47.7% | 21.4% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | VFB vs ELV | 61.5% | 18.7% | 19.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 00:00 | BVB vs S04 | 64.8% | 20.1% | 15.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.