Gameweek 28
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 00:00 | ELV vs KOE | 42.4% | 23.0% | 34.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | S04 vs SCP | 44.4% | 25.4% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | BMG vs SVW | 41.3% | 23.0% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | FCU vs M05 | 38.2% | 23.9% | 37.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | FCA vs TSG | 38.0% | 21.5% | 40.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | SGE vs VFB | 34.9% | 21.1% | 44.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | B04 vs BVB | 37.8% | 23.5% | 38.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | RBL vs SCF | 56.5% | 19.9% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 00:00 | BAY vs HSV | 82.2% | 10.4% | 7.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.