Gameweek 27
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-19 00:00 | SCP vs B04 | 26.0% | 21.1% | 52.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | KOE vs BAY | 13.3% | 14.4% | 72.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | HSV vs SVW | 41.5% | 24.5% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | M05 vs FCA | 44.1% | 22.4% | 33.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | SCF vs ELV | 57.8% | 20.0% | 22.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | TSG vs SGE | 57.0% | 18.9% | 24.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | VFB vs S04 | 58.5% | 21.1% | 20.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | RBL vs FCU | 68.5% | 16.7% | 14.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 00:00 | BVB vs BMG | 70.0% | 16.9% | 13.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.