Gameweek 26
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-12 00:00 | ELV vs BVB | 22.6% | 20.9% | 56.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | S04 vs TSG | 31.7% | 23.3% | 45.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | SVW vs VFB | 32.2% | 22.2% | 45.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | BMG vs HSV | 43.0% | 24.0% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | FCU vs SCF | 31.9% | 23.3% | 44.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | FCA vs RBL | 29.8% | 20.7% | 49.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | SGE vs SCP | 52.2% | 21.4% | 26.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | B04 vs KOE | 63.3% | 18.3% | 18.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-12 00:00 | BAY vs M05 | 80.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.