Gameweek 25
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-05 00:00 | SCP vs BMG | 43.3% | 23.7% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | KOE vs FCU | 47.2% | 23.6% | 29.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | HSV vs SGE | 40.0% | 23.0% | 37.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | M05 vs ELV | 50.7% | 21.8% | 27.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | SCF vs FCA | 51.6% | 21.3% | 27.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | TSG vs SVW | 57.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | VFB vs B04 | 41.8% | 21.6% | 36.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | RBL vs S04 | 65.0% | 18.5% | 16.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 00:00 | BVB vs BAY | 30.3% | 22.6% | 47.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.