Gameweek 24
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-02 00:00 | ELV vs RBL | 25.0% | 19.6% | 55.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | S04 vs KOE | 41.1% | 25.2% | 33.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | SVW vs M05 | 41.9% | 23.2% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | HSV vs SCP | 45.1% | 24.8% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | BMG vs VFB | 29.0% | 21.4% | 49.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | FCU vs FCA | 37.4% | 23.3% | 39.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | SGE vs BVB | 25.1% | 21.1% | 53.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | B04 vs TSG | 52.5% | 20.0% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-02 00:00 | BAY vs SCF | 75.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.