Gameweek 23
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-26 00:00 | SCP vs SVW | 39.9% | 24.1% | 35.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | KOE vs SGE | 42.8% | 22.0% | 35.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | M05 vs S04 | 48.3% | 24.1% | 27.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | FCA vs ELV | 52.4% | 21.0% | 26.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | SCF vs B04 | 38.2% | 22.0% | 39.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | TSG vs BMG | 62.0% | 18.4% | 19.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | VFB vs HSV | 59.8% | 20.3% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | RBL vs BAY | 26.7% | 19.4% | 53.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-26 00:00 | BVB vs FCU | 68.3% | 18.1% | 13.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.