Gameweek 22
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-19 00:00 | ELV vs FCU | 45.2% | 23.2% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | S04 vs SCF | 32.9% | 24.5% | 42.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | SVW vs BVB | 23.5% | 22.2% | 54.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | HSV vs TSG | 31.4% | 22.7% | 45.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | BMG vs KOE | 41.4% | 23.2% | 35.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | SGE vs RBL | 28.4% | 19.7% | 51.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | B04 vs M05 | 60.6% | 19.0% | 20.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | VFB vs SCP | 61.4% | 19.5% | 19.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 00:00 | BAY vs FCA | 80.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.