Gameweek 21
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-12 00:00 | ELV vs S04 | 43.7% | 24.3% | 32.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | KOE vs HSV | 45.8% | 24.2% | 30.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | FCU vs BAY | 12.0% | 13.7% | 74.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | M05 vs BMG | 51.5% | 21.8% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | FCA vs SVW | 49.3% | 21.9% | 28.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | SCF vs SGE | 54.0% | 20.2% | 25.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | TSG vs SCP | 60.6% | 19.4% | 20.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | RBL vs B04 | 49.6% | 20.5% | 29.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 00:00 | BVB vs VFB | 54.9% | 21.8% | 23.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.