Gameweek 20
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-05 00:00 | SCP vs BVB | 21.8% | 22.0% | 56.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | S04 vs FCU | 43.5% | 25.5% | 31.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | SVW vs KOE | 44.7% | 23.3% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | HSV vs RBL | 24.6% | 21.2% | 54.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | BMG vs SCF | 32.0% | 22.3% | 45.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | SGE vs M05 | 45.5% | 21.6% | 32.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | B04 vs FCA | 60.2% | 18.7% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | VFB vs TSG | 47.8% | 21.1% | 31.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 00:00 | BAY vs ELV | 82.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.