Gameweek 19
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-29 00:00 | ELV vs BMG | 46.0% | 22.3% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | KOE vs VFB | 32.0% | 22.4% | 45.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | FCU vs B04 | 25.9% | 21.1% | 53.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | M05 vs HSV | 48.9% | 23.5% | 27.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | FCA vs SGE | 48.0% | 20.8% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | SCF vs SCP | 57.8% | 20.9% | 21.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | RBL vs SVW | 66.1% | 17.2% | 16.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | BVB vs TSG | 57.1% | 20.8% | 22.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-29 00:00 | BAY vs S04 | 79.7% | 11.6% | 8.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.