Gameweek 18
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-22 00:00 | SCP vs M05 | 37.5% | 24.0% | 38.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | S04 vs FCA | 38.0% | 24.4% | 37.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | SVW vs SCF | 35.2% | 23.0% | 41.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | HSV vs BVB | 21.9% | 22.9% | 55.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | BMG vs RBL | 23.4% | 19.4% | 57.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | SGE vs FCU | 51.6% | 21.4% | 27.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | B04 vs ELV | 65.7% | 17.0% | 17.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | TSG vs KOE | 57.8% | 19.8% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-22 00:00 | VFB vs BAY | 21.1% | 18.1% | 60.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.