Gameweek 17
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-15 00:00 | SCP vs KOE | 40.0% | 24.3% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | SVW vs ELV | 47.8% | 22.3% | 29.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | HSV vs FCA | 38.2% | 23.8% | 38.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | BMG vs FCU | 44.3% | 23.5% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | SGE vs BAY | 13.9% | 13.6% | 72.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | B04 vs S04 | 62.5% | 19.5% | 18.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | TSG vs RBL | 37.4% | 21.1% | 41.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | VFB vs M05 | 56.1% | 20.5% | 23.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-15 00:00 | BVB vs SCF | 57.6% | 21.4% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.