Gameweek 16
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-12 00:00 | ELV vs SGE | 40.6% | 21.5% | 37.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | S04 vs SVW | 41.0% | 25.1% | 33.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | KOE vs BVB | 23.3% | 22.4% | 54.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | FCU vs SCP | 44.6% | 24.4% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | M05 vs TSG | 36.6% | 22.0% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | FCA vs BMG | 53.4% | 20.9% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | SCF vs HSV | 56.0% | 21.8% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | RBL vs VFB | 53.5% | 20.2% | 26.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-12 00:00 | BAY vs B04 | 70.4% | 15.0% | 14.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.