Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-08 00:00 | SCP vs RBL | 24.0% | 20.4% | 55.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | SVW vs FCU | 47.5% | 23.4% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | KOE vs SCF | 35.0% | 23.1% | 41.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | HSV vs B04 | 26.8% | 21.9% | 51.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | BMG vs BAY | 11.5% | 12.6% | 75.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | SGE vs S04 | 49.4% | 22.7% | 27.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | TSG vs ELV | 60.6% | 18.6% | 20.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | VFB vs FCA | 55.6% | 20.1% | 24.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-08 00:00 | BVB vs M05 | 63.9% | 19.4% | 16.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.