Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-18 00:00 | ELV vs HSV | 43.9% | 23.7% | 32.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | S04 vs BMG | 44.4% | 24.5% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | FCU vs TSG | 30.5% | 22.1% | 47.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | M05 vs KOE | 47.6% | 22.8% | 29.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | FCA vs SCP | 52.8% | 21.9% | 25.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | SCF vs VFB | 42.0% | 22.4% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | B04 vs SGE | 62.9% | 17.4% | 19.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | RBL vs BVB | 40.6% | 23.4% | 35.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-18 00:00 | BAY vs SVW | 82.2% | 10.1% | 7.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.