Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-11 00:00 | SCP vs ELV | 42.9% | 23.5% | 33.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | SVW vs B04 | 28.8% | 21.2% | 50.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | KOE vs RBL | 26.2% | 20.7% | 53.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | HSV vs S04 | 42.7% | 26.1% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | BMG vs SGE | 39.5% | 21.6% | 38.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | M05 vs SCF | 37.9% | 23.0% | 39.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | TSG vs BAY | 19.9% | 17.1% | 63.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | VFB vs FCU | 61.5% | 19.5% | 19.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-11 00:00 | BVB vs FCA | 63.8% | 19.1% | 17.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.