Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-04 00:00 | ELV vs VFB | 28.3% | 20.5% | 51.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | S04 vs BVB | 23.1% | 20.6% | 56.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | FCU vs HSV | 43.6% | 24.5% | 31.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | FCA vs KOE | 43.7% | 22.6% | 33.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | SGE vs SVW | 54.3% | 20.9% | 24.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | SCF vs TSG | 37.9% | 22.2% | 40.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | B04 vs BMG | 60.6% | 19.7% | 19.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | RBL vs M05 | 58.7% | 20.3% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | BAY vs SCP | 81.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.