Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-04 00:00 | ELV vs VFB | 30.4% | 21.4% | 48.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | S04 vs BVB | 22.9% | 23.7% | 53.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | FCU vs HSV | 42.4% | 25.1% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | FCA vs KOE | 49.4% | 22.0% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | SGE vs SVW | 48.5% | 21.3% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | SCF vs TSG | 43.9% | 21.8% | 34.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | B04 vs BMG | 67.3% | 16.7% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | RBL vs M05 | 63.5% | 18.1% | 18.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 00:00 | BAY vs SCP | 81.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.