Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-27 00:00 | SCP vs S04 | 42.3% | 23.4% | 34.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | SVW vs BMG | 39.2% | 25.1% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | KOE vs ELV | 51.0% | 21.5% | 27.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | HSV vs BAY | 15.8% | 16.5% | 67.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | M05 vs FCU | 45.1% | 24.1% | 30.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | SCF vs RBL | 34.6% | 22.2% | 43.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | TSG vs FCA | 58.5% | 19.7% | 21.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | VFB vs SGE | 57.7% | 18.6% | 23.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 00:00 | BVB vs B04 | 52.2% | 21.3% | 26.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.