Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-27 19:30 | SVW vs BMG | 48.5% | 22.4% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 14:30 | SCP vs S04 | 41.3% | 25.7% | 32.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 14:30 | KOE vs ELV | 47.5% | 22.5% | 30.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 14:30 | HSV vs BAY | 12.7% | 14.7% | 72.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 14:30 | M05 vs FCU | 50.4% | 22.8% | 26.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 17:30 | VFB vs SGE | 58.2% | 19.0% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:30 | SCF vs RBL | 35.4% | 21.8% | 42.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 16:30 | TSG vs FCA | 54.5% | 20.0% | 25.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 18:30 | BVB vs B04 | 51.5% | 22.2% | 26.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.